Some markets are slowing. Others are about to explode.
LoanBase analyzed over 30,000 maturing loans across the U.S. to understand where the next refinance wave will emerge.
The findings reveal a clear divide – and a major opportunity for brokers and lenders who know where to look first.
The five states shaping the 2025 cycle
? California
Still the largest market by balance, California’s multifamily sector dominates – but it’s also where distressed refinancing is rising fastest. Expect a high volume of loan workouts and bridge-to-agency transitions.
? New York
Mixed-use and multifamily properties are refinancing at tighter spreads, driven by stabilized assets in Brooklyn, Queens, and Westchester. Construction slowdown means less new inventory – and higher demand for refinanced debt.
? Texas
Industrial and flex spaces are the state’s core growth story. Dallas and Houston show strong borrower activity in early-refi scenarios – sponsors are taking advantage of moderate cap rate compression.
? Florida
Retail and hospitality refinancing are accelerating as service-based centers and tourism rebound. Miami-Dade and Orlando markets show the strongest appetite for mid-size balance loans.
? Illinois
Chicago’s refinance activity is being driven by lenders repositioning older office portfolios into multifamily and mixed-use conversions. Expect higher refinance-to-sell ratios here than anywhere else.
Together, these five states account for over $300 billion in upcoming maturities – half the national refinance volume.
What this tells us about behavior
The data signals a transition:
- Brokers are prioritizing stable, rent-producing assets.
- Lenders are adjusting for yield certainty over volume.
- Sponsors are selectively refinancing to pull equity or reposition for sale.
The geography of refinancing has become the new map of opportunity – and it’s moving faster than most realize.
Why this matters for origination teams
If you’re not actively tracking loan maturities by market, you’re already a step behind.
Every loan that matures is a potential relationship, mandate, or closing waiting to happen.
Teams using LoanBase’s Prospects are already surfacing these leads daily – by region, property type, and borrower intent.
That means they can move before the borrower even starts calling.
Turning regional data into deal flow
Data without action is just noise.
With LoanBase, brokers and lenders can:
- Filter loans by geography, balance, and maturity date.
- Access verified borrower details for direct outreach.
- Compare lenders active in the same metro and asset class.
- Generate automated deal recaps that make first contact frictionless.
This is how origination teams are now scaling – not by adding headcount, but by amplifying timing.
What’s next: Predictive deal sourcing at the metro level
The next evolution of CRE data isn’t national.
It’s local – even hyperlocal.
Our upcoming Metro Refinance Index will provide ranked lists of cities and counties with the most refinance activity over the next 12 months.
For brokers, lenders, and investors, it’ll be the closest thing to a deal radar the industry has ever had.
? Want early access?
Subscribe to the LoanBase Refinance Almanac and get notified when the Metro Index goes live.
