According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 17% of commercial and multifamily mortgage balances mature in 2026. That means a massive refinance wave is coming.
Yet most brokers still build their pipeline the same way: They wait until 60-90 days before maturity, pull a list, and start sending emails. By that point, the deal is usually already spoken for.
The sponsor has likely:
- Contacted their existing lender
- Spoken with a broker they already trust
- Started underwriting with at least one option
At that stage, you are no longer competing for the relationship. You are competing on price. And price is where brokers lose. The relationship was already formed months earlier.
What we want to share is a strategy we repeatedly see working among top-performing originators: instead of chasing loans 90 days before maturity, they engage sponsors 9-12 months earlier, when the refinance strategy is still being shaped.
Based on our observations across multiple deal pipelines, this shift alone can improve win rates by roughly 25-30%, without increasing deal flow.
Same market. Same leads – just better timing.
That is the power of entering the conversation before everyone else does.
Why Timing Matters in Sales
There is a strong psychological reason for why approaching earlier works: research from Harvard Business Review shows that more than 60% of B2B buying decisions are shaped before the formal buying process begins. By the time a company is actively evaluating vendors, many preferences are already formed. Another well-known study from Gartner found that the first vendor to engage with a buyer often shapes the problem definition itself. In complex B2B sales, the vendor who helps the buyer frame the problem is far more likely to influence the final decision.
This matters enormously in commercial real estate finance – when you reach out 12 months before maturity, you are not competing with five brokers yet. You are often the first person helping the sponsor think about the refinance.
Psychologically, that creates three advantages:
- Memory advantage: People remember the person who introduced the idea. When the refinance becomes urgent months later, that name comes back first.
- Trust advantage: You helped analyze the situation before there was pressure to close a deal.
- Framing advantage: You influenced how the sponsor thinks about the refinance: leverage levels, equity gaps, lender types.
When the deal finally becomes real, the sponsor often calls the person who helped them think through it first.
The Real Refi Window: 12 – 6 Months
The smartest originators focus on the 12–6 month window before maturity. This is when sponsors start asking the real questions:
- Can the asset refinance at today’s rates?
- Will valuation support the same leverage?
- Will we need to bring equity?
This is where deals are actually won.
Month 12: The Strategy Phase
Around 12 months out, sponsors begin realizing the capital stack may not work exactly as planned. Your role here is not to pitch lenders.
Your role is to frame the refinance strategy. A simple outreach can already create value:
- Estimate refinance proceeds
- Identify a potential LTV gap
- Outline two possible capital stack solutions
Sponsors remember the broker who clarifies the path forward.
Month 6: The Execution Phase
Six months before maturity, the transaction becomes real: financials are collected and lenders are selected. Quotes begin circulating. If you helped shape the strategy earlier, you are already leading the deal.
If you show up at this stage for the first time, you are just another quote in the process.
How to Build a Pipeline That Actually Closes
Most brokers don’t need more leads, they need better timing.
Start doing three simple things.
- Pull maturities 12 months out: Look at loans maturing in the next year, not the next quarter.
- Focus on refinance friction: Prioritize assets with signals like:
- Expiring rate caps
- Heavy lease rollover
- Declining occupancy
- Upcoming capex needs These signals often trigger refinancing discussions.
- Change the outreach message: Instead of: “Checking if you’re considering refinancing.”
Try: “Your loan matures next year. Several lenders are tightening leverage for similar assets. It may be worth mapping refinance options now before spreads widen.”
That message shows insight. Insight builds credibility.
The Strategic Shift
Most brokers chase maturities when they are already around the corner.
The best originators start the conversation 12 months earlier, when the sponsor is still thinking through the strategy.
In complex sales like CRE financing, the person who enters the conversation early often becomes the person who closes the deal.
